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Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

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01:00:00

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San Francisco, CA, USA

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Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

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mpeg2video

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ac3

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528

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480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

Us 14, Europe 12, Starbucks 11, U.s. 5, Larry Fink 5, S&p 4, Bob Iger 3, Jamie Dimon 3, Washington 3, Ron 3, Bob 3, Jeff 2, John Boehner 2, Dana 2, Jack Lou 2, Jim 2, Lucasfilm 2, Bertha Coombs 2, Charles Schwab 2, Sears 2,
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  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    November 8, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EST  

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hi, everybody. we enter the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. no relief rally today. the selling continuing on wall street. >> i'm bill griffeth. the keyword is sell, sell, sell. that's been the word on the street. the dow down about 400 points now, or about 3%, since tuesday, since the president's re-election. it's the worst two-day losing streak for the blue chip average in about a year. the s&p 500 and nasdaq are also down sharply the past two sessions. we want to show you where we stand right now, as a matter of fact. just off the lows of the session, down 61 points on the dow. we were down about 80 points at the low. now at 12,872. no bounce today so far. the nasdaq is down 27 points at 2909. the s&p 500 index at this hour also lower, down almost ten
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points. >> pretty broad based as well. what will it take to get the bulls in a buying mood once again over these fears over the fiscal cliff? does it derail any hopes of a sustained rally until next year? >> that's what we're going to talk about in today's "closing bell" exchange. joe, is this about the fiscal cliff? i mean, europe is still a worry as well, isn't it? >> it is. clearly -- and largely, it was retail sentiment from what we're seeing from the customers coming in that have sold for the last two days. institutions haven't exactly ran for the door just yet. you have the fiscal cliff. now we can address that. you have situations in the northeast. mother nature beat us down twice in the last ten days. there are some things still being sorted out there. of course, europe is creeping back into the spotlight. there are a few things overhanging the market. maybe people are saying it's time to take a little off the
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table. i think there's short, mid, and long-term investment opportunities. >> jim, i guess we don't have the clarity on tax rates. that's probably one of the big issues. if you own winners in the market, you know, what would stop you from selling them now knowing your taxes are definitely going higher in 2013 and we don't know by how much? >> i think that's exactly right. the thing that came out of tu tuesday is we're still a divided nation. that translates into it looks a little more difficult for them to come to a deal on the fiscal cliff. that's what's changed. so obviously what would get the market to go up would be that we have a deal. unless we get one, you're right. if taxes are going up, your window is between now and the end of the year that you can sell and use the lower tax rates. otherwise, you risk higher tax rates after january 1st. >> meanwhile, with this selloff in equities, jeff, we're sort of stuck in a trading range for the
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price of oil, although in a wide range. we've had a volatile week this week, haven't we? >> but very expected. this market has been leading exactly the way -- look at the long-term chart. we had a range set $88 to $85. this market has built up a base between $84.50 and $85. the market is very resilient. it seems to hold here. the question s what could get it higher? probably it's only going to take very severe winter here in the northeast to drive the market up with the heating oil. otherwise, this market is hanging in here, waiting for some news. we don't break down until we're below about $84.25. so far, that's been something that hasn't been able to be done. it's been tried several times over the last couple weeks. the market's held pretty well. >> rick, i thought it was interesting yesterday that john boehner came out and said, look, we want to do a deal, we want to reach across the aisle, get things done.
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the president as well called his republican counterparts. do you think there's room for compromise here? what do you think happens? >> i don't think i have nearly enough information to say whether there's room for compromise. if i look at actions in history, things that are tangible, i guess my answer would probably be no. do i have some hope? yes, but hope isn't quantifiable. what's quantifiable is today's 30-year bond auction. i'll tell you what. we can talk about europe. it was spectacular. look at the charts, what happened at 1:00. look at the fact that we're at the lowest yields in a couple months in the 30-year. the longest duration instrument, and everybody's racing for a number of reasons. this election definitely maybe was one on social issues, immigration issues, but on the business side, it is clear. things like dodd frank aren't even part of the fiscal live. those issues are going to remain. taxes most likely will be higher. i think the business community, investment community, leans a little more conservative. they are buying 30-year bonds. don't dismiss what that may
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mean. operation twist, probably when it ends, turns into a quantifiable treasury buyback program. that's what that rally is telling you on the long end as well. >> qe-4, maybe, at some point. joe, are you scooping anything up? are you just going to let this thing continue here? >> much to rick's point, you know, anything gold related is very similarly where investors are going right now. you can see the buoyancy it's had thus far. a little selloff yesterday was shrugged off. now it's been solidly green today. i think anything related there is going to continue to be the case. of course, you want to keep your eye on the hospitals and related services. also, keep your eye on the home builders and materials. the companies that provide those materials because that's going to be the next focus for the government if they're going to get the jobs to improve. they're going to have to do it in the largest base or the industry with the largest base, which is in home building. that's the shorter to mid stuff. down the road -- and i know people are kill me for this one, but you want to look at the
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financials. they're still the fuel that drives the engine. they're going to have to learn to deal with with the president. he's going to be here another four years. everyone is going to play nice if we want the economy to grow. >> what about dividend payers? these companies are getting crushed as people speculate where dividend taxes go. jim, are you a buyer? you want to stay away? what do you want to do with dividend payers? >> until i get some clarity on the fiscal cliff, i would probably stay away from anything that would be a tax-related issue. the dividend payers would be high on the list. as far as what to do, i would agree with joe. gold was the story before the election. the argument was we were electing a president and a monetary policy. we elected the president that's going to continue the easy monetary policy. gold has been one of the few things that's been working through the election. i suspect it will continue to. >> all right. jeff, in the energy complex itself, what's the best opportunity right now? is it crude? is it heating oil? is it natural gas? what are you looking at? >> if you're a weather player,
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you certainly want to buy the heating oil. the way we've seen the last couple of days here, the weather has been very unpredictable. that's sort of like the lottery ticket. i would tend to think you can buy heating oil, you can buy gas, buy crude. all on dips here. you're looking for a pop here. again, hopefully we don't have anything that's tragic but could be that wild, crazy weather scenario that could play in this year. >> try to anticipate the unanticipatable. >> something to that effect. >> thank you. see you later. >> meanwhile, bill, even with this two-day selloff we're seeing, our herb greenberg says there's plenty of stocks that may still look overpriced and are poised for a big drop. herb. >> maria, they don't call these battle ground stocks for nothing. you can take a look at them, especially if you look at their charts, which are amazon, it's the poster child
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for this. its revenue growth, sliding. take a look at intuitive surgical. lots of bears circling this one. trades at 30 times forward earnings. falling revenue growth and falling earnings growth. this one, i think it's a favorite of jim cramer, sherwin williams. falling revenue growth. alta salon, 27 times forward earnings growth. flat earnings growth. a revolving door of cfos. finally, lumber liquidators. trades at 27 times earnings. its revenue growth, earnings growth looks good. look at this chart. it hits that vertical line that i know jeff was talking about. clearly one that's going vertical, one to definitely watch. one definitely with potential. and i say potential. bill. >> you missed your calling. you should have been a bond trader. always looking at the half empty part of the glass. >> this is true.
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somebody's got to do it, bill. >> i agree. you do it well. >> thank you. >> thanks, herb. heading toward the close. about 50 minutes left here. the dow holding near the lows of the day. >> don't go anywhere. we have a lot more to come on this busy edition of the "closing bell." coming up, 47 days until christmas and counting. the march to the holidays is getting started earlier and in a bigger way this year after walmart announces it will open at 8:00 on thanksgiving night to kick off black friday. will the christmas creep be a gift to the retailers' bottom line? plus, the bear truth. can the markets trust washington after conciliatory gestures from president obama and house speaker john boehner towards solving the nation's fiscal mess? >> we're ready to be led. not as democrats or republicans, but as americans. >> our good old-fashioned bull/bear debate is straight ahead. and deconstructing disney.
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it's a first-on interview with the magic kingdom's chief bob iger, and his thoughts on earnings and the multibillion dollar deal for lucasfilm. >> it will be a day long remembered. >> that's all ahead on the "closing bell."
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this just occurred to me this morning. do you know that thanksgiving is two weeks from today? >> man. >> it's all upon us. if you're already dreading spending all day with your extended family, fear not. walmart is coming to the rescue. it's announcing it's going to open its doors at 8:00 p.m. >> how is that going to fly with your family? >> who's going to watch football now? >> that's a four-hour head start for black friday. do we want this? courtney reagan joins us with the details. >> if retailers get their way, consumer shopping bags will be just as full as their bellies on thanksgiving this year. black friday is just 15 days away for most. though, walmart and sears, it's
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even sooner. they're beginning their black friday doorbusters on thursday at 8:00 p.m., two hours earlier than last year, and continuing the deals throughout the evening and weekend. sears shop your way members will be able to shop thanksgiving and black friday starting on sunday, november 18th. the christmas creep began last year, and it's likely here to stay. last year toys r us opened at 10:00. thanksgiving hours have proven popular with younger shoppers and men. both preferring to stay up late and shop than getting up early and standing in line. but it hasn't proven to be the catalyst and necessarily increases sales. it just kind of shifts the time of purchase. last year the early black friday promotions did seem to pull sales forward, only to cause a sales lull in early december. that led to promotional panic towards the end of the season, which hurt those margins in the end. bill. >> yes, it can. courtney, thank you. we should point out, 10% of holiday sales are at stake during that day.
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black friday, when presumably retailers go into the black. that's why they call it that. let's look at this phenomenon of opening earlier. >> good to see you both. thanks for joining us. dina, i feel like things are getting earlier and earlier every year. do you think this strategy pays off for walmart and others? >> hi, maria. i agree. i think it pays off because it's all about gaining market share. if you can get traffic by opening earlier, that's what these large discounters want to do. some of them need to do it also. >> paul, you're not so sure. why? >> with all respect to dana, i've been hearing things are getting earlier and earlier for 30 years. yes, some items where it's a planned purchase you'll gain market share. at the end of the day, you're pulling sales forward. yeah, if you're getting a tv, you could steal a sale from another store that sells that exact same tv, but you're shopping for, let's say, nike
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sneakers or a coach bag, you plan to make that purchase. it doesn't matter which week you make it. you have to get it at a nike store or coach store or somebody that sells it. doesn't change anything. >> would this lead to a trend that we see some stores remaining open, even on christmas day? when does it end? dana, are we going to see further openings when you're not expecting it? >> i think overall you still see the majority of stores not opening on thanksgiving day or christmas day. we have seen some big retailers like the gaps of the world with old navy open their days on thanksgiving day and even christmas day. i don't think we'll see all retail doeers do it because in end 40% of holiday season sales are typically made in the last ten days before christmas. >> how much of this is just a result of competition from online? you know, if you're not open, people can't shop there. you can do it online, though. >> yeah, i think that's definitely in executive's minds when they're making these
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decisions. don't forget the strongest online sales growth right now has been from department stores. so the old line retailers are catching up by accelerating retail sales. online sales are being leaked earlier and earlier. so the after thanksgiving, cyber friday or cyber night effect is diminishing because the sales are getting spread out over a longer period. i don't totally see it. >> and so in terms of margins, are you expecting, you know, drawdowns and sort of a lot of discounting going on, dana? talk to us about retail margins. >> i think retail margins are going to be good this holiday season. one of the differences between last season is inventory levels are getting leaner. the level of markdowns that you have should not be as great. we should see some margin recovery given the product cost increases you had last year. one of the themes of holiday 2012 is that it could be a more profitable christmas season than
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it beats the top line christmas season because they're all bringing in goods just it in time to make that sale. so it should be more of a full-priced christmas. >> all right. we'll leave it there. >> thank you, folks. see you later. >> we have 40 minutes lfr the closing bell sounds on wall street. a market that is slightly off of the lows, down about 53 points on the dow. >> the coffee wars are heating up. green mountain unveiling details of an espresso machine to compete with starbucks. find out which stock is more likely to brew up profits for your portfolio straight ahead in talking numbers. from the coffee wars to star wars. disney ceo bob iger will be with us explaining how the acquisition of lucasfilms will impact their bottom lines. he joins me after the bell. well, if it isn't mr. margin.
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mr. margin? don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know.
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energy prices have reboundsed from wednesday's monster selloff. sharon here with details on that. >> bill, it was the biggest one-day point and dollar decline for crude we've seen this year. we are looking at oil prices right now that are above the $85 a barrel level. there's still a lot of weakness ahead, some traders say. this may be an opportunity to buy on the dips. others say there's plenty of supply out there and not a lot of demand, so that's the reason why oil could be under pressure. there's been a redivergence between gold and oil prices over the last several days. gold particularly resilient, back above the $3017 level. the fiscal cliff, will it be
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averted or not? that's a reason the traders say there's bullishness in the gold market and could be on a climb toward the $1800 level. >> shanron, thank you so much. the coffee wars are heating up today. green mountain unveiled its newest cappuccino maker. what will this machine mean for green mountain, and which is a better buy right now in terms of the stocks? we're doing talking numbers. gentlemen, good to have you on the program. let's kick it off with fundamentals. what could this new machine mean for green mountain? to what extent is it actually a threat to starbucks? >> well, thank you for having me. i think it's actually a very good thing for green mountain. first of all, to have the device available to consumers ahead of the holiday season and to have a competitor to starbucks. we think it's going to be a positive. we believe that both companies will benefit from early adoption
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from core brand loyal consumers. both companies can get off to a good start going into the holiday season. ultimately, the devil's going to be in the detail as far as long-term adoption. >> mark, let's talk about technicals. walk us through the chart. >> starbucks remains the clear leader. it's still really the one that should outperform in the months ahead. if you look at the charts initially, and you can see charts at green mountain versus starbucks. you see charts going back. green mountain initially it's really fallen about 80% off its highs. it's really a shell of the stock and the company it was a few years ago. this stock was one of the former growth leaders in the industry. now it's down 80%. it's really been muddling along these lows. at least near term you haven't seen sufficient signs to argue that the stock really should start to move up right away. you've seen a couple different rally attempts. the volume did pick up on those levels. you have really failed to get beneath even a minimal amount of, you know, resistance in terms of getting above that to think the stock can move ahead. it's a little more speculative right now. i think starbucks is a better
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buy. >> how does starbucks look? >> meanwhile, if you look at charts of starbucks, this stock has been a stellar growth stock over the last few years. it's been at a great uptrend. you saw a little sign of weakness last april when the stock peaked out and pulled back. we haven't seen sufficient deterioration. it's held this longer term uptrends line. this is fairly decent support. although near term in the last couple weeks, it's moved up to this 52 level. you want to buy pullbacks. in my opinion, between the two, i would favor starbucks. wharveg >> what a nice looking chart. mark, which company do you like best? >> long-term fundamentals, both will perform well. near-term, i think the bar is higher for starbucks. investor perception has been a little more constructive on green mountain's competitive situation whereas with starbucks, this is a fairly new thing for them, to be participating in a machine war. it's something that's going to be very competitive for years to come. >> rare to see the fundamental and technical story agree on
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that. thank you so much, guys. appreciate it. bill, over to you. >> let's get to bertha coombs with a market flash on mcdonald's. >> it's been a player in the coffee wars, but boy, it's lost a lot of caffeine. take a look at the chart today. it's the worst performer in the dow, responsible for about 20% of the downside move in the dow jones industrial average. it hits a new 52-week low. it's in correction territory, down 15% after hitting an all-time high, above $102 back on january 20th. this stock has really been below a lot of its technical support since disappointing on earnings. the problem, bill, sales continue to trend lower. back to you. >> that was the first time in a while i've seen that happen. thank you very much. >> let's head toward the close here. the dow kind of holding steady with a decline of 56 points. you think these last two days have been painful for the equity markets, one of our next guests feels that the dow is going to see 6,000 back to the march of '09 lows in two years, 2015.
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we'll get his reasoning on that and get a bull/bear debate going. plus, can washington rise above and come together before we drive off the fiscal cliff? why some fear it cannot. back in a moment. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412.
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welcome back. a little over 30 minutes left on the trading session. if you're just joining us, time to get a quick stat check on the dow. stocks hid the skids again today. persistent concerns about the fiscal cliff, the crisis in greece. usual suspects today. we were down 96 on the low of the day. the dow on pace for its third consecutive weekly decline. nine of the ten s&p 500 sectors have been trading to the downside today, led by building materials, consumer discretionarie discretionaries, utilities have bucked the trend. trading higher today. >> how is 6,000 for a bearish call on the markets? we're at 12,876 right now.
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that's what harry dent, author of "the great cash ahead" is predicting. he said it's not the fiscal cliff but another issue that will trigger the next financial meltdown. >> but cnbc contributor ron enasna is an optimist at heart. he disagrees with harry's prediction. both join us now to make their case. how are you, ron? >> i'm fine. why are you laughing, bill? >> it's not the ron i know. >> optimist? >> at least you're bullish in this particular case. harry, is this a technical retest of the march of '09 lows that you're calling for, or is something fundamentally going to happen that's going to end us back down there again? >> well, again, the u.s. stimulated the last crisis with our subprime crisis. the world was awash in debt. demographic trends were set to slow. now we have the same thing replaying with europe set to be the trigger this time with their sovereign debt crisis. we have even greater debt now in
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countries around the world. demographics is getting ready to slow more in the next few years. i think we're prime for a crisis. this time it's going to be europe that triggers it, not our fiscal cliff, not our fed. if we could take the whole world down, europe can take the whole world down. think of it this way. we've had two bubbles and we're in a third one. each bubble has taken us a little higher. each crash has taken us a little lower. 6,000 is simply the bottom trend line through those bottoms, including the 6440 in early 2009. it's a slight new low. it's not anything that should be unexpected given the trend. >> well, it's still, you know, half of where we are right now. it's only a two-year period. ron, take the other side of that. what do you think? >> i think it's a pretty easy other side to take. with respect to the fact that the united states economy is actually getting stronger, i do believe we'll get a deal, not only averting the fiscal cliff, but also getting us a big grand bargain on deficit reduction.
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we've seen a strong pivot from the nation's leaders on that point. i don't think europe will be responsible for a global crisis. if you look at engines, housing is turning. manufacturing renaissance. a huge boom in conventional energy. technology also driving growth here in the united states. i don't see the ingredients, which i did in 2007. bill, you could back me up on this. for a major decline. i would be far more bullish. we're going to have a 5% or 10% correction around here. i think the fundamentals for the u.s. are quite positive in absolute and relative terms. i don't see us going back to 6,000. >> harry, i mean, we would have to see a disintegration of the european union, the eurozone, to have that kinds of impact on the u.s. economy. is that what you're calling for? >> it's more than that. even the u.s. economy alone is two economies right now. 80% of people never feel we came out of the recession because they peaked in their spending. their house is under water. 20% of people are college
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educated. very low unemployment rates. they benefitted from qe and the markets rising back. they peak in their 50s instead of mid-40s. the wealthier part of our economy is due to tailor off. the demographics in europe just go off a cliff for many, many years to come. yes, you can have nice little things in the economy and stimulus, but you can't get older people to spend money, and europe has the worst problems because they have the worst demographic. >> listen. the economist in britain taught us that demographics do not have a very strong predictive value, particularly when it comes to markets. in 1998, harry wrote a book saying the dow was going to 35,000. in 2009, he wrote about the great depression that was ahead, and the s&p has gone up 110% off the lows. the economy has gone to new highs in gdp and car sales. >> you rung for office? >> no, absolutely not. i would not predict stock market trends based on some of the
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factors harry cites. >> ron, you don't know what you're talking about. the correlation with the economy and the stock market is unbelievable. we said in 1992 that the economy would top around 2007. we go into a 12 to 14 year downturn. we predicted with demographics against the grain that japan would collapse from 1994 back in the late '80s. nobody saw that coming. demographics it the leading indicator. people do predictable things as they age. they spend less after their 40s. you can't fight that with a generation the size of the baby boom with stimulus. >> sure, you can. >> no, you can't. i'll bet you on that. >> happy to bet it. >> how did japan's market do? their baby boom market peaked in the early to mid-90s. they've been down for years and years and years. >> and we behave nothing like japan. they started their quantitative
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easing programs -- >> no, we're doing the same thing as japan, qe. they buy endless qe. >> first of all, they were five years late to start their quantitative easing process. five years late to start the zero interest program. our market has behaved radically different from that of japan. so has our economy. >> 2008 to 2009 wasn't straight down? >> no, 2007 of october. >> it's gone down and up for 20 years. >> guys, how about a near-term question? the market is so focused on taxes right now. we're looking at anticipation of higher taxes, so that has triggered so much selling. do you expect more year-end selling? how much further does this market go down over the near term going into year end given the fact that we don't know where tax rates are going to be yet and we're waiting on the fiscal cliff fix? >> well, i would bet that we have something of a 10% peak to trough correction here. once the game gets clearer --
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listen, i talked to one operative close to the obama administration today who suggests the president is will be to compromise if the other side it. i think they cut a deal. i think they do a simpson-bowles style tax reform. it will be very stimulative to the u.s. economy. baby boomers will continue to spend throughout their lives. they're going to work longer. they're staying in the work force longer. >> no, they won't. >> they have to. >> they will not. ly stand by that for the next ten years. our forecast, real quickly, i actually see the market rallying into year ends. i think the fiscal cliff is probably going to be dealt with. i see a crash after that. somewhere between december and february i think news -- slower economy in the u.s. from baby boomers and problems in the europe. >> at least we have an agreement to the end of the year on the fiscal cliff. we'll stop right there on that one. thank you, guys. see you later. we don't have to work very hard on that one. market kind of moving a little
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lower here. down 67 poinlts on the industril average. >> after you hear what's coming on the other side of this break, i bet you will. stay with us on that. >> also ahead, a rare glimpse inside the mind of one of the nation's biggest white collar criminals. someone who gave bernie madoff a run for his stolen money. listen. >> it's what holds people back from doing things like this. their fundamental virtue, or is it the fear of getting caught? >> find out how mark drier stole hundreds of millions of dollars and how he blew it all before being caught. later on "closing bell."
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let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. just before the break as part of the dividend, we asked, which company's stock with earnings out tomorrow morning has dropped the most this year? constellation energy, jcpenney or nutrisystem?
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now the payoff. jcpenney, which has fallen year to date. >> what a move apple has had the last couple weeks. the stock leading the tech sector lower today. seema mody with the story. >> well, the bears keep crawling over apple. let's sum up some of the key technical levels apple has broken over the past week. it started on friday when it closed below its 200-day moving average. that was the first time it closed below that level since november of 2011. yesterday it officially entered bear market territory. shares down more than 20% from its all-time high. today it broke a key support level of 550, a market technician at isi says 528 is a next level to watch, which is its mid-may low. guys, let's put this into perspective. the stock is vastly outperforming the nasdaq if you look at that year to date chart. the stock up 32%. i'll leave it there. back to you.
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>> they're not hurting at apple. that's for sure. thank you p. >> meanwhile, the fiscal cliff front and center. is it really behind what we're seeing on wall street? bob says you bet. >> robert, what are the trader telling you? is this selling all about fiscal cliff and the expectation of higher taxes? >> we resolve one uncertainty and move to another one. you can't put everything on it. we had concerns yesterday about europe. but yes, this is a major part of what's been happening. the one thing i would point out is 350 points is still pretty small. if you look at the concerns of what happened on the debt ceiling negotiations, remember that, bill? in august 2011. put up the vix five-year. the vix went to almost 50 on that. it's remained around 18 or 19. yes, there is anxiety, but it's a long way from things like what happened on the fiscal cliff negotiations or the debt ceiling negotiations. there's a five-year on the vix. we're still pretty low. remember the flash crash? look at that.
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went to about 75 a long time ago. still muted, bill. >> just want to point out that a minute ago, bill, you said we had a bias to the downside. that's exactly what we're seeing now. the dow down 78 points here. we are worsening as we approach this final stretch. don, how worried are you about the fiscal cliff? what are you telling clients who are in the dark in terms of a where the tax rates will be in 2013? what should you do as an investor knowing this is a complete sort of black hole? >> well, you know, from my perspective, i think it's positive you're seeing some of the leadership in washington want to begin to work together and resolve this fiscal cliff. you're absolutely right. the market wants to get that certainty. i would just argue, go back and look at when dividends were taxed at ordinary income rates pre-2003 when the tax law changes. dividend paying stocks historically have always done well. i think it's just a function of, you know, going back and looking where we were historically and,
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yes, there could be near-term volatility. longer term, i think the characteristics of dividend paying stocks are so much more important to the long-term returns of an investor, which is why we focus on dividend paying stocks in our fund. >> sould buy dividend payers even in this uncertainty? >> i would. i can't imagine they're going to allow the taxation of dividends to go above ordinary income rates or to go up triple which is what i guess it could do. i can't imagine that's going to happen. i think cooler his will prevail. >> we went from 15% to 20% on capital gains, for example. that seems to be withi do you think the market would be dramatically affected by that? i think we can absorb that. i think 40% of people are going to go ballistic over it. >> i think that's what most people are expecting, 20%, 25% tops. >> i would take 20%. >> eric, how do you make money
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in this uncertain environment? >> bill, thanks for having me. we're going long and short various sovereign debt and currency instruments. given the election on tuesday, the fact we know the fed is going to be on hold for forever, the dollar is going to weaken. i think there's lots of non-dollar stocks that are attra attractive. >> all right, gentlemen. thank you. >> want to get to bertha coombs with breaking news. she's at the flash desk. >> we've been watching the stocks here. take a look. we've got a recall on nestle. it's recalling its chocolate saying one of the elements that goes into it has been exposed to salmonella. they're voluntarily recalling a number of sizes. you may want to check the label and check with your store. >> wow. hasn't affected the stock yet. >> not yet.
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chocolate milk very popular. >> yes, it is. thanks, bertha. >> 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we're worsening as we speak. down 82 points on the industrial average. >> banks have been one of the few bright spots on wall street today after a massive selloff on wednesday. what's behind that? we'll take a look. and we'll ask jamie dimon about that tomorrow. don't miss my exclusive interview with him. we'll sit down with him tomorrow and find out how he thinks wall street will fare under president obama. that's tomorrow on "closing bell."
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stocks continue lower. the dow down 82 points. we may have one of the reasons why here in the last few minutes. mandy drury has that story. >> absolutely, bill. we have breaking news from ratings agency standard & poors saying that if they cannot get an agreement on the fiscal cliff before the end of the year, the rating will go down. there's a 50% chance the u.s. will go over that so-called
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cliff. the good news is their base scenario is there will be an agreement before the ends of the year. that's what we've got so far, guys. back to you. >> all right, mandy. thanks so much. >> 15%. that's not so bad. you're hearing that talk more now since the re-election of the president. a few agencies have come out now and said there's maybe a little higher chance of us going over the fiscal cliff. still, 15%, i'd take those odds. >> there are some people who say, go over the fiscal cliff. some people feel we should because that will sort of spring everybody into action. >> and reduce the deficit that continues to rise. >> exactly. but the issue is that this uncertainty, until we know where tax rates are going to be, why would you make real plans in terms of your budget if you're a large corporation or small corporation, in terms of hiring plans? you have no idea. >> a few companies -- and we may see this more in the coming days, are now accelerating the payment of their dividends.
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companies that would normally have waited until january to pay those dividends are now going to pay them in december. if their shareholders choose to, they take those ahead of time and pay the lower dividend rate, which is very interesting. we might see that more often. what industry does this affect the most? i would think the financials, don't you? >> well, it does. they've got -- actually, they cut their dividends on the heels of the 2008 crisis and were unable to pay dividends. they're coming back slowly in terms of dividend payouts. >> i wonder what jamie dimon is going to say about this tomorrow. >> i think he wants to get back to paying a high dividend. there's no doubt in my mind. today we learned the federal reserve is actually okaying jpmorgan's buyback plan. that's a big positive. it certainly was a positive for the company. a lot of uncertainty as far as how they were going to allocate their money in terms of buybacks, in terms of dividends. this certainly puts some clarity. that's why you're seeing jpmorgan shares up today. just a fraction, but certainly the fed okaying the plan is a
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positive. >> once upon a time, and i know i'm sure he's going to want to talk about this, jamie was talked about being on the short list for treasury secretary for a second term of president obama. >> i doubt it. i highly doubt it. no way. i'm betting on larry fink. i think larry is going to be the next treasury secretary. there's a horse race going on now between larry fink and jack lou. >> i think it's going to be jack lou, the president's chief of staff. he's skilled in budget negotiations going back to the days of ronald reagan. i think that's what they're going to need to have. somebody who can deal with the gridlock that has existed in washington for the last few years. >> you also have larry fink being a business guy. >> true. >> the president has had an antagonistic relationship with business. this could be a positive if it's larry fink in there. you know tim geithner is on the phone with larry fink virtually every day if not every week talking about budget issues. we'll see. there's definitely that horse race going on. >> we look forward -- >> i guess we'll learn soon enough. >> i think so. they're going to be announcing
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that soon enough. the whole cabinet shake-up coming in the next few weeks. i look forward to your interview with jamie dimon tomorrow. meantime, we're going to come back with the closing countdown with the dow down 84 points. >> also, the force now with disney. bob iger is here to lay out what the company plans to do with the cash on hand and with the acquisition of lucasfilm. plus, we'll break down their latest earnings before he speaks to analysts. >> meantime, groupon ready to report earnings. we'll look at whether this troubled company will even be around a year from now. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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inside the four-minute mark as we do the countdown. i want to show you the selling has intensified. we're not at the lows of the session for the dow, but we're close. at the low we were down 96 points midday. then we came back. now we're down about 86 points. here's what's going on in the bigger scheme of things. the dow is now below its 200-day moving average. this is a one-year chart. we've broken an up trend line that was put in back in june. yes, i'm a closet technician, but at any rate, we're below that. you're going to have technicians now trying to figure out where the next support level is for
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the industrial average. by the way, the s&p is sitting right at its 200-day moving average. so we'll watch that very carefully. that index is 1380.74. it's less than a point above that number. inside the dow, the best and worst performing stocks today, b of a got a buy recommendation from isi group. that led the financials higher. cisco among the technology stocks moving lower today, down almost 2% right now. when we show you the sectors, only one was higher today. that was the utilities. they've been beaten down so much after hurricane sandy and among other things. materials, consumer discretionary, energy. a lot of these that have been strong recently, seeing profit taking today. there's technology down 1.25%. michael shea, why the selling? why no bounce today after the biggest down day of the year yesterday? >> because there hasn't been much in the way of resolution. we got bad news out of europe. there's grave concern about taxes. you know, that's been talked about ad nauseam today.
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there's also, as you mentioned, technical levels only come in play when they're big technical levels. we are at them. there's one more technical level you should know. that is, we are almost at 50% retracement between our lowest low, which is 1266, before our highest high, which was 1474. we're about ten points away from that. 50% retracements. again, those are big numbers. >> all the traders on the floor of the new york stock exchange did well in their math classes in high school and college. you should know that. eric, what do we do here? are you ready to start to step in? i know you go long and short simultaneously. the bias up or down? >> i think the bias is flat to down. given the problems with the fiscal cliff coming up, i do think evenly politicians will kick the can down the road and push the fiscal cliff off. just like last august with the debt ceiling, it's going to get messy. i think we're going to be in a period of volatility. >> are we kidding ourself when is we say that europe is a big part of this decline because of the debt crisis? are we ignoring the fiscal cliff
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to some degree? >> i don't think we're ignoring it now. i think we were ignoring it for a good, long time. i'm not an optimist, but i'm a realist. i do believe there will be some sort of resolution. the fact is, these are real concerns. the market needs a good gut-wrenching down right now. >> we're getting it right now. down 100 points on the industrial average. so now we are setting lows for the session. now the s&p is below its 200-day moving average, which was at 1380 and change. you think we continue this tomorrow? we have one more day to go this week. >> if i'm somebody looking to get in, i'm looking at my portfolio. i'm looking at the dogs i've got. i'm thinking about maybe, you know, starting to get a little bit of cash, pick your spot. i don't know if it's yet, but it's going to come. >> all right. good to see you both. thank you for joining us today. ringing the closing bell today, representatives of companies that helped in the cleanup effort of hurricane sandy. combined, they've raised about $11 million for that